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　　Statistical projection: Earth likely to warm over 2 degrees C this century

　　专家预测：本世纪末地球温度将上升2℃

　　New statistical projections by researchers at the University of Washington (UW) show a 90 percent chance that temperatures will increase this century by 2.0 to 4.9 degrees Celsius.

　　近日，华盛顿大学研究人员的最新研究成果发现，全球温度有90%的概率在本世纪末将进一步上升， 上升幅度达2℃到4.9℃。

　　Instead of working on scenarios for future carbon emissions, ranging from "business-as-usual" emissions from growing economies to serious worldwide efforts to transition away from fossil fuels, the new study focuses on three quantities that underpin future emissions: total world population, gross domestic product per person and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity.

　　不同于以往的从影响每年工业排放到全球范围内替代化石燃料的过渡等未来场景来估算碳排量的变化，新的研究方法主要从三个对碳排量的有影响作用的量化指标着手：全球总人口.、人均GDP和创造1美元经济效益所产生的碳排放量，简称为碳排放强度。

　　Using statistical projections for each of these three quantities based on 50 years of past data in countries around the world, the study published this week in Nature Climate Change finds a median value of 3.2 degrees Celsius warming by 2100.

　　对过去50年各国数据进行分析，得出以上三个指标的变化趋势，研究成果发表在上周的《自然气候变化》期刊上，论文中称预计到2100年，全球气温平均上涨3.2℃。

　　The researchers, including lead author Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology, and co-author Dargan Frierson, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences, have recognized that what matters more is the carbon intensity, the amount of carbon emissions produced for each dollar of economic activity. That value has dropped over years as countries boost efficiency and enact standards to reduce carbon emissions.

　　论文的第一作者Adrian Raftery 是一位统计学和社会学教授以及第二作者Dargan Frierson,一位气候科学教授，他们共同认为：影响气候变暖最关键的因素是碳排放强度，即创造1美元经济效益所排放的碳含量，在过去的几个世纪里，由于人类生产效率的提高和减少碳排放量的努力，这个指标已经连续多年出现下降。

　　However, how quickly that value drops in future decades will be crucial for determining future warming. And warming of the planet by 2 degrees Celsius is often seen as a "tipping point" that people should try to avoid by limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

　　然而，这个指标在接下来数十年的下降快慢对于未来气候变暖至关重要，一直以来，地球温度上升2℃一直被视为“警戒线”，人类应该通过努力减少温室气体排放来避免这一可怕后果的发生。

　　The new findings indicate that there is only a 5 percent chance that Earth will warm 2 degrees or less by the end of this century; and a mere 1 percent chance that warming could be at or below 1.5 degrees, which is the target set by the 2016Paris Agreement on climate change.

　　新的研究结果表明，地球气温升高2℃或者更少的几率只有5%,而上升1.5℃以下的概率只有1%，这也是在2016的《巴黎协定》里关于全球变暖所制定的目标。

　　In their work, the researchers initially expected to find that higher populations would increase the projections for global warming. Instead, they were surprised to learn that population has a fairly small impact, because most of the population increase will be in Africa, which uses few fossil fuels.

　　另外，在研究初期，科学家原本认为更多的人口将加剧气候变暖，但是令人惊奇的是，人口对于气候变暖的影响十分有限，因为目前人口增长主要来自化石燃料使用较少的非洲地区。