The American economy：Can the Trump boom last?

　　美国经济：特朗普的繁荣能持久吗?

　　America's president is not the architect of American strength. But in the short term, things will go his way.

　　特朗普不是美国增长的造就者。但是，短期内，事态是被限定在走他的路上面的。

　　There is often more fakery than truth in a tweet from President Donald Trump.

　　特朗普的推文中经常是假的多于真的。

　　But on one subject he is broadly right.

　　但是，在一个问题上，他总的来说是对的。

　　America's economy is in good shape.

　　美国经济事态良好。

　　Business confidence is high.

　　商业信心高亢。

　　Jobs are plentiful.

　　就业岗位充裕。

　　Last month non-farm companies added 228000 workers to their payrolls.

　　上个月，非农公司给它们的工资单上增加了228000名工人。

　　The unemployment rate is 4.1%, the lowest figure for more than a decade.

　　失业率是4.1%，为十多年来的最低数字。

　　The availability of jobs is drawing more of the working-age population into the labour force.

　　工作之可得正在吸引越来越多的劳动适龄人口加入劳动大军。

　　Wages are growing in real terms with some of the biggest gains going to low-paid workers.

　　按照实际水平计算，工资正在增长，其中最大的所得流向了低工资工人。

　　Mr Trump over-eggs things, of course.

　　特朗普当然是要反复吹嘘啦。

　　He claims each good jobs report and each new peak in the S&P 500 as his own achievement.

　　他声称，每一份靓丽的就业报告和标普500的每一次新高都是他的功劳。

　　In fact, he was lucky in his inheritance.

　　事实上，在遗产方面，他是幸运的。

　　The market has risen by 25% since his election, but is up by 195% since 2009.

　　自他当选以来，市场上涨了25%，但是自2009年以来上涨了195%。

　　The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 10% to 4.7% under Barack Obama and then to 4.1% on Mr Trump's watch.

　　在奥巴马治下，失业率从高峰时的10%降到了4.7%。之后，在特朗普监护中，又降到了4.1%。

　　His administration says that a mix of deregulation and corporate-tax cuts will spur sustained GDP growth of 3%, well above the 2% average of recent years.

　　他的政府表示，去监管和消减企业税的结合将激发出持续的3%的GDP增长，远远高于这几年2%的平均水平。

　　As the economy approaches full employment, an astonishing pickup in productivity would be needed to accomplish that.

　　随着经济接近完全就业，为了实现这一目标，生产力方面某种令人吃惊的改善是事所必需的了。

　　But Trump-bashers overstate their case, too.

　　但是，特朗普的批评者也是言过其实了。

　　They dismiss the optimism of consumers and bosses as sentiment, not substance.

　　他们不把消费者和雇主的乐观当回事，认为那不过是一种情绪而已，并非是实实在在的。

　　They warn that the stockmarket is dangerously overvalued and that America's expansion, which is in its 102nd month, must soon falter.

　　他们警告说，股市被危险地高估了，正处于第102个月之中的美国扩张不久必将举步维艰。

　　Yet the economy is not in immediate danger.

　　然而，经济体并非处于迫在眉睫的危险之中。

　　And the maturity of the business cycle cuts both ways.

　　而且，商业周期的成熟把这两种情况都排除了。

　　It makes a nonsense of Mr Trump's claims to be the author of American economic success.

　　特朗普有关他是美国经济成功造就者的说法纯属胡说八道。

　　But the economy is also capable of some welcome surprises.

　　但是，经济体出现某些受欢迎的惊喜也是有可能的。

　　America is not the only economy doing well.

　　美国不是唯一运转良好的经济体。

　　For about a year, a synchronised global expansion, taking in Europe, Asia and the Americas, has been under way.

　　一年来，发生在欧洲、亚洲和美洲的某种步调一致的全球扩张一直都在进行之中。

　　GDP growth in the euro zone, a region until recently synonymous with economic misery, is around 2.5%, despite slower population growth than America's.

　　在直到最近都是经济窘境代名词的欧元区，GDP增长在2.5%左右，尽管其人口增长慢于美国。

　　But America stands out because of where it is in the cycle.

　　但是，美国的一枝独秀是因为她正处于扩张周期中。

　　If it continues in 2018, this expansion will become the country's second-longest ever.

　　倘若这一周期在2018年继续下去，这次的扩张将成为该国史上的第二长时间扩张。

　　True, there are perils.

　　诚然，风险是存在的。

　　As the business cycle matures, there is more chance that the economy will overheat, because of bottlenecks in the jobs market;

　　随着商业周期走到头，由于就业市场的瓶颈，经济将会过热的可能性越来越大;

　　or that the central bank overtightens in order to prevent things from running too hot.

　　为防止事态过热，央行过度收紧的可能性也越来越大。

　　The longer the economy keeps growing, moreover, the more scope there is for financial imbalances, such as excess debt or frothy asset prices, to build up.

　　经济体越长时间地保持增长，过度债务或者是泡沫化的资产价格等金融失衡逐步累积的空间就越大。

　　Some warning signals are flashing.

　　一些警示信号正在闪烁。

　　The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed, as it tends to before recessions.

　　长短利率差已经如其在危机之前常常好出现的那样缩小。

　　Yet the evidence for overheating is thin.

　　然而，过热的证据是贫乏的。

　　Inflation has trended lower this year.

　　今年以来，通胀一路走低。

　　Wage growth has picked up a little, thankfully, but shows few signs of accelerating.

　　好在工资增长有所抬头，但没有显现出多少加速的迹象。

　　Pay would have to increase by quite a lot more before rising inflation is a real worry.

　　工资支付不得不在日渐上升的通胀之前大幅增长是一个确切的担忧。

　　实用表达：

　　1.interest rates 利率

　　例句：High interest rates have stunted economic growth.

　　高利率已经阻碍了经济的增长。

　　2.picked up 捡起;收拾

　　例句：I picked up the phone book and glanced through it.

　　我拿起电话簿，匆匆扫了一遍。

　　3.Wage growth 工资增长

　　例句：Wage growth is moderate everywhere，in spite of tight labour markets.

　　尽管劳动力市场供应紧张，但全球各国的工资增长颇为温和。

　　4.in order to 为了

　　例句：In order to transform their environment，he drew up the project with painstaking accuracy.

　　为了改造环境，他苦心孤诣地制订了这个计划。