Gold Was The Strongest Major Currency

　　Investment in the latter part of 2002 and at the start of 2003 has been driven by geopolitical concerns1 but the underlying background is more complex, and reflects currency concerns, along with the desire to hedge against risks in the equity and bond markets and, notably in the case of2 Argentina and Japan, risks in the banking sector. Corporate governance problems also played a strong part during the first part of 2002 , as a deepening mistrust of corporate reports and accounts augmented some investors’desire to hedge against equity exposure . Gold thus reasserted itself as an alternative asset class, enabling the professional investor to diversify his risk. With concerns also swirling in the markets about the destiny of the dollar, the euro and the yen, gold and the Swiss franc came into play as reserve currencies.

　　As a consequence, the professional investor is once again looking at gold as a hedge against risk — something that many individuals in developing nations have never ceased to do. These individual investors in the Middle East, Indian sub-continent and the Far East have remained loyal to gold as a safe haven, or an“ ultimate investment”as a portable、 anonymous form of money and it is this sustained activity which has formed the foundation of the change in sentiment in the rest of the world. The“retail”investor in the so-called first world is also aware of gold ’s resurgence and there has been a noticeable rekindling of interest in coins and bars from this quarter as well interest in gold in other forms from other investment pools.

　　Offsetting this fresh demand to some extent is the fact that the slowing global economy had a negative effect on purchases of gold in the jewellery sector, and the poor Indian monsoon3 meant that Indian offtake, the world ’s largest, was particularly badly hampered. This is one of the answers to the question“why didn’t the price rise further, given all the other uncertainties in the world?”One of the important features of gold is that more often than not, a reason for one man to buy it is the same reason for another man to sell it. It is this that helps to make it an attractive alternative asset class as it has characteristics all of its own and a negative, if any, correlation with many of the other major asset classes. In this case the slowing economy hindered jewellery purchases, but prompted purchases from investors concerned that stock market valuations were too high given the deteriorating outlook for earnings.

　　It is worth pointing out also that if the price had rocketed, the integrity of the demand side would have been severely undermined and such a rally would have proved unsustainable.

　　练习题：

　　Ⅰ. Translate the following expressions into English according to the passage :

　　1. 关于地缘政治的考虑

　　2. 股票债券市场

　　3. 对⋯⋯有负面作用

　　4. 不确定因素

　　5. 和⋯⋯成反比

　　6. 匿名的

　　Ⅱ. Questions :

　　1. Which country buy the most gold to make jewelry?

　　2. What are“reserved currencies”?

　　答案：

　　Ⅰ. 1. geo-political concerns

　　2. the equity and bond markets

　　3. have a negative effect on

　　4. uncertainties

　　5. a negative , if any, correlation with

　　6. anonymous

　　Ⅱ. 1. India.

　　2. Gold and the Swiss franc .

　　解析：

　　黄金是最坚挺的主要货币

　　2002 年后期和2003 年初, 紧张的地缘政治局势充分激活黄金投资。不过, 它潜在的背景环境也更加复杂, 它反映了对货币的担忧, 以及试图通过黄金对冲来规避证券和债券市场及银行部门风险的渴望。日本和阿根廷就属后一种情况。在2002 年初, 公司的管理问题也在黄金价格的上升过程中充当非常重要的角色, 大公司财务报表的可信度降低, 加剧了投资者规避股市风险的切望。黄金被重新提上投资工具行列, 成为专业投资者分化风险投资组合的工具之一。由于美元、欧元和日元在市场上命途多舛, 黄金、瑞士法郎就成为储备通货的选择。

　　形势发展的结果是, 专业投资者再一次把黄金当作规避风险的屏障——— 而这种观念在一些发展中国家的个人投资中从来就没有停止过。比如中东、印度次大陆和远东地区, 个人投资者们仍很忠诚地把黄金当作避风港, 或者当作便于携带又匿名的“ 钱”——— 一种“ 终极投资”。而且正是这种持续不断的行为为世界其他地区观念的变化奠定了基础。所谓第 一 世界的“ 零售”投资者也意识到黄金市场的复苏, 从本季度开始, 投资者不但对来自其他投资基金的黄金投资形式兴趣明显增强, 而且对金币和金条的兴趣也重新燃起。

　　另一方面, 全球缓慢发展的经济在推动金价上升的同时, 在某种程度上又抑制了珠宝业的黄金购买能力。特别是印度( 世界最大的珠宝黄金需求国) 因为反常的季风气候而减少了珠宝黄金需求。这也是近期尽管世界有其他诸多不稳定因素, 黄金价格并没有进一步上升的原因。目前, 黄金的一个重要的特征是, 一方买入的原因常常就是另一方卖出的原因。正是如此, 黄金才成为一种吸引人的资产品种, 因为黄金除了有其自身所有的特性外,还与许多其他资产品种成负相关的关系。因此, 世界经济变缓抑制了黄金珠宝的购买力,但却促使那些担心证券市场的市值被过分高估而预期收入减少的投资者来购买黄金。

　　值得重视的一点是, 如果黄金价格飞升, 黄金的总体需求将受到严重损伤, 因为飙升的金价最终将被证明是不稳定的。